Jump to content


Photo

Sabermetrics In Nerf

Baseball's stat tradition + our hobby

74 replies to this topic

#26 Rambo

Rambo

    Fear the Robble...

  • Members
  • 1,807 posts
  • Location:Allentown, PA

Posted 18 June 2007 - 10:52 AM

Not sure what you want me to put up. Link to the thread? Or Game type and whatnot?
  • 0

#27 Evil

Evil

    Fucking Copout

  • Members
  • 1,156 posts

Posted 18 June 2007 - 11:20 AM

Not sure what you want me to put up. Link to the thread? Or Game type and whatnot?


Just list the basics of the game types. Team Skirmish, 3.15 rules, 10 vs 10 (approx.).
  • 0
2007 Great American GoreFest Champion (Aug. 4, Apoc)

#28 The Shadow

The Shadow

    Member

  • Members
  • 136 posts

Posted 18 June 2007 - 12:24 PM

Personally, I think this could go completely out of control. There might be a dispute over a mistake. For example "I got ___ many kills, how come I didn't show up on my stats?" or "Why is he/she have ___many headshots? He/she only nicked my shoulder?."
  • 0
QUOTE
I'm just concerned that NH could be held liable when Ted inevitably ties this kid up and sticks him in his trunk for safe keeping. Seriously, Parkway, you might want to think about carrying a tazer.


#29 theschief

theschief

    Member

  • Members
  • 42 posts
  • Location:Here

Posted 18 June 2007 - 12:51 PM

What about stats that would compare you to other players or the team?
Some of the best baseball stats are the ones used to find the answers to questions such as:
How much has Barry Bonds contributed to the Giants this season, and where would they be without him? (Answer: where they are now: the bottom of the NL West)


So next time it would be awesome if somebody took stats to see which share of a teams performance can be attributed to what player. That would be achieved by taking a player's total kills (and assists) and dividing them by the total amount of kills of the team.
ex: If the blue team wins the game with 30 hits, and NerfMonkey racked up 7 kills, then 23.3% of the blue team's kills can be attributed to NerfMonkey.

Now, what I don't know how to do is how we would calculate a ValueOverReplacementPlayer. That substitutes one player (NerfMonkey in this case) with an average player. then it recalculates the team's W/L with the addition of this new player. So if the average amount of hits in that game for all players was 4, then...... That is what I can't figure out.
+ I think that you also have to factor in the total amount of hits recieved for the blue team and the figure if the other team would have died less then they would have been able to take out the blue team faster.
+ So I think that you would compare the ratios of kills/hits against that of the other team. The team with the better ratio should have won.
+ But then I'm not sure how to develop a number that could express the value of a player to his team.

EDIT: Shadow, I think that these statistics are actually pretty cut and dry. If there is an error, it can be corrected. If there is a disputed kill..... hell, maybe that could become a stat (to figure out who causes the most trouble)! Nah, the beauty of statistics is that they are indisputeable....

Edited by theschief, 18 June 2007 - 12:53 PM.

  • 0
QUOTE
nerfer34
Your account will not be functional until June 23, 20007 9:59 AM (depending on your timezone). This is an automated process and you do not need to do anything to expediate the unsuspension process.

+ Silver BBB
+ Ball Blaster and Buzzsaw......

#30 Evil

Evil

    Fucking Copout

  • Members
  • 1,156 posts

Posted 18 June 2007 - 01:14 PM

Personally, I think this could go completely out of control. There might be a dispute over a mistake. For example "I got ___ many kills, how come I didn't show up on my stats?" or "Why is he/she have ___many headshots? He/she only nicked my shoulder?."


Do you Nerf? All of the things you just mentioned are all things that are sorted out on the field and would be reflected on the final scorecard following compromise or settlement.

I don't get the "I got ___ many kills, how come I didn't show up on my stats?" part of your post. Everyone who is interested in doing something like this is required to maintain their own kill/hit counts. Sure a player could inflate these numbers but not without some serious scrutiny from those that played with and opposite of a given player. Most of the time you have a good indication who is doing what and how well they are doing it. I am requiring volunteers for this experiment to be completely honest and as accurate as possible.

"Why is he/she have ___many headshots?." I just addressed the fact that those don't count any more than a kill, so they would not be tallied period.

"He/she only nicked my shoulder?." A nick is a skim as we play it. If it skims you and continues on its path for a serious amount of feet (lets say over 5), you don't have to take it. What a dart needs to do is make enough contact that the trajectory of the dart is impeded (like a flush shot against the chest) or the dart must bounce off of you accordingly. Its really not that hard.

So next time it would be awesome if somebody took stats to see which share of a teams performance can be attributed to what player. That would be achieved by taking a player's total kills (and assists) and dividing them by the total amount of kills of the team.
ex: If the blue team wins the game with 30 hits, and NerfMonkey racked up 7 kills, then 23.3% of the blue team's kills can be attributed to NerfMonkey.


We can do this now, thats why we recorded how many people were involved with DCNO. Most rounds were approximately 10 vs. 10. That means that with 3.15 rules, each team had a max of 30 hit points allowed (and we play until one team is totally out of hits). Consider my last round, when I went 9/2. I accumulately approximately 27% of my team's kills for that final round.

+ So I think that you would compare the ratios of kills/hits against that of the other team. The team with the better ratio should have won.


With 3.15 rules the team with the better ratio automatically wins, because the loser has no hits left, period.

+ But then I'm not sure how to develop a number that could express the value of a player to his team.


The value of a player to his team is represented by stats KHD (kill/hit differential) and W% (win percentage). KHD is the stat that details how many kills a player made for every hit he/she took. W% is a subjective stat, as great players can lose and any given round is a group effort, but over time we might see patterns that suggest a certain player contributes to winning efforts more.

I bought a tally counter for future events, I want to see how much that helps the count. Should be a much quicker solution than remembering kills like at DCNO.

Edited by Evil, 18 June 2007 - 01:25 PM.

  • 0
2007 Great American GoreFest Champion (Aug. 4, Apoc)

#31 One Man Clan

One Man Clan

    TOFTS

  • Contributors
  • 2,170 posts
  • State:New Jersey
  • Country:United States

Posted 18 June 2007 - 01:23 PM

I'm fucking awesome. I don't need a spreadsheet to tell me what I, you, and your mom already know.
  • 0
I hate you.

#32 Substance Abuse

Substance Abuse

    Member

  • Banned
  • 487 posts
  • Location:New York City///New Jersey

Posted 18 June 2007 - 06:36 PM

USNL (United States Nerf League)


Kills Per Game


Hits Per Game


Flag Capture Points Per Game


Assists Per Game


Kill Ratio to Darts Shot (Accuracy)


Now This is just an idea for a format.



|My Theory|- To assign maybe 10 people in the NIC to record war data and post in a new forum of the site. The Chosen stat keepers will be the only people with the rights to post in the new forum and every "League" War will be recorded there. Then at the end of the year a tally would be made and the person with the best stats will be crowned "USNL Nerfer of the Year"

Hey I think its a good idea.
QUOTE(Brass @ Jul 6 2007, 10:30 PM) View Post

QUOTE(keef @ Jul 6 2007, 09:29 PM) View Post

Yeah, I'm in the same case as Substance Abuse...
Brass, ask your mother.

She said your dad owes her three dollars.

#33 theschief

theschief

    Member

  • Members
  • 42 posts
  • Location:Here

Posted 18 June 2007 - 07:49 PM

USNL (United States Nerf League)

Quoth Evil: ".... and I'm NOT proposing that Nerf become more organized like a league or emphasize more of a competitive nature......


And I'm not trying to make anyone feel worse about their playing but I think this stuff is kinda interesting.
I think the best way how players contribute to their team's result might be comparing the average KHD of wins vs. the average KHD of losses. It should obviously be expected that a person's KHD in a loss would be worse then in a win but I think the difference between the two could be signifcant. (to really make a point we'd need a bigger amount of rounds to draw from...)

To use DCNO as an example:
Evil and Groove performed very similarly statistically and have similar differentials. (Evil: 1.73333..., Groove: 1.7).
NerfMonkey and CrankyMonkey also put up similar numbers but had very different win totals. (NerfMonkey: 5-4, CrankyMonkey 3-6). Nerf Monkey's differential is .57, meaning his performance in wins was only slightly better then in losses. He was more consistant. CrankyMonkey's differential is 2.16, meaning that his record in wins was vastly better then in losses.* While CrankyMonkey was less consistant, his success (or failure) appears to have had a huge effect on his team.



* To really make this statistic work you need a bigger pool of scores. Notice CrankyMonkey was exceptional in two wins, but scored 0-3 in his last win. So clearly the conclusions aren't perfect...

Edited by theschief, 18 June 2007 - 09:03 PM.

  • 0
QUOTE
nerfer34
Your account will not be functional until June 23, 20007 9:59 AM (depending on your timezone). This is an automated process and you do not need to do anything to expediate the unsuspension process.

+ Silver BBB
+ Ball Blaster and Buzzsaw......

#34 shadowkid33

shadowkid33

    Member

  • Members
  • 633 posts
  • Location:Voorhees, NJ

Posted 18 June 2007 - 07:55 PM

It certainly isn't a bad idea, but then the entire honesty-policy becomes a problem again. I say at the next major war, everyone keeps track of their points that way and we'll see how it works out. If an MVP can be decided for the war, and the process goes smoothly, we take it full scale and try what substance said for a season.
  • 0
QUOTE
how the heck do you make a double clip?

QUOTE
Here are the steps.
1. Go to the search button in the right corner of the screen
2. Click
3. Search double longshot clip.

QUOTE
i dont have time, jeez, im new here!

#35 Rambo

Rambo

    Fear the Robble...

  • Members
  • 1,807 posts
  • Location:Allentown, PA

Posted 18 June 2007 - 08:52 PM

So, who keeps track of how many darts they fire? Enough problems aroused from trying to keep track of kills, much less shots.
  • 0

#36 shadowkid33

shadowkid33

    Member

  • Members
  • 633 posts
  • Location:Voorhees, NJ

Posted 18 June 2007 - 08:59 PM

Yeah, RAMBO's right. Remembering how many darts you shot would just be ridiculous.

This is a good idea, but one of the reasons I like nerf is that it doesn't require you do anything like keep track of all your stats. My previous post was an idea, but I relize now that it was an irrational, impracticle one.

Edited by shadowkid33, 18 June 2007 - 09:00 PM.

  • 0
QUOTE
how the heck do you make a double clip?

QUOTE
Here are the steps.
1. Go to the search button in the right corner of the screen
2. Click
3. Search double longshot clip.

QUOTE
i dont have time, jeez, im new here!

#37 Evil

Evil

    Fucking Copout

  • Members
  • 1,156 posts

Posted 18 June 2007 - 09:02 PM

USNL (United States Nerf League)


Never. The point of utilizing sabermetrics in Nerf is to help the players address any issues they might have and holes in their game. It is not something that requires some kind of organizational overhaul of the hobby, but instead it is just another element I'm hoping to add to the experience.

How many times do I have to say it? We don't need official stat coordinators, each person records their own stats and then those are compiled online accordingly through a spreadsheet.

The farthest I could see this going is maybe declaring an MVP after certain events, or maybe we could give credit to the new players who do exceptionally well. There are certainly plenty of titles we could attach to the best of the players but they seem unnecessary.

The honesty policy that we're talking about here does not concern me. I trust the volunteers because if stats were inflated, it would be easily discernable for most of us that were competing also.

Edited by Evil, 18 June 2007 - 09:04 PM.

  • 0
2007 Great American GoreFest Champion (Aug. 4, Apoc)

#38 VACC

VACC

    Vacc is Legend

  • Founders
  • 3,265 posts
  • Location:New York
  • State:New York
  • Country:United States

Posted 18 June 2007 - 09:26 PM

So, this is supposed to make you guys feel better when you lose? You go ahead and worry about your ratio while I'm taking out your teammates.
  • 0

#39 Rambo

Rambo

    Fear the Robble...

  • Members
  • 1,807 posts
  • Location:Allentown, PA

Posted 18 June 2007 - 09:42 PM

So, is that post supposed to support your ego? You go ahead and worry about your butt sex with Famine while I'm owning you with Hail Marys.


WHAMMY!

Posted Image

Edited by RAMBO, 18 June 2007 - 09:49 PM.

  • 0

#40 VACC

VACC

    Vacc is Legend

  • Founders
  • 3,265 posts
  • Location:New York
  • State:New York
  • Country:United States

Posted 18 June 2007 - 11:14 PM

So, is that post supposed to support your ego? You go ahead and worry about your butt sex with Famine while I'm owning you with Hail Marys.


WHAMMY!


I just don't understand it. I come here to get on Matt's nerves and you get all froggy, Sly.
Oh wait, I get it.
I'm sorry Cobra; you felt left out. Matt, you think we could squeeze a cheese-fries-eaten stat in there somewhere?

VACC
  • 0

#41 Rambo

Rambo

    Fear the Robble...

  • Members
  • 1,807 posts
  • Location:Allentown, PA

Posted 18 June 2007 - 11:21 PM

Cobra?
  • 0

#42 Evil

Evil

    Fucking Copout

  • Members
  • 1,156 posts

Posted 18 June 2007 - 11:52 PM

Matt, you think we could squeeze a cheese-fries-eaten stat in there somewhere?


I don't see why not. I would also strongly consider a "most-chips-consumed-attached-by-cheese-considered-one-nacho" stat, the acronym being "MCCABCCON". The statistical range would be on a scale of 1 through 37 (chips per round), because we all know the limits of monterey jack and sharp cheddar.
  • 0
2007 Great American GoreFest Champion (Aug. 4, Apoc)

#43 Mantis

Mantis

    Member

  • Members
  • 553 posts

Posted 19 June 2007 - 01:04 PM

Evil:

Kills Average [KA] (per round): 5.44
Hits Average [HA] (per round): 2.00
Kills/Hits Differential [KHD]: 2.72 (kills for every hit taken).
Win Percentage [W%]: 66(%)

I also noticed that at first (when I was sucking) it was hard to get used to keeping some kind of score, since for so many years we haven't kept personal scores. It got easier as the day went on though (after I stopped sucking) and if more people want to try this experiment at the next event I would be all for it. These aren't perfect statistics (I'll record mine when they make me truly look like a vet) but they are accurate enough that I think they give us an idea of what goes on (excluding the after-war rave).



I did a little editing for Matt.
Dinner is on me this week still sweet-cheeks ;)


But as Ty Webb said in Caddy Shack, "I don't really keep score."
  • 0
Personal LCM Summer Tune-Up Stats:
K:H=1.00
Shots Fired: 2.1 x 10^4
Fun had: 97%

#44 Evil

Evil

    Fucking Copout

  • Members
  • 1,156 posts

Posted 19 June 2007 - 01:21 PM

Yes, dinner is on you Mantis. And by "on you", I mean I'm going to lick it off every square inch of your body... this would rule out stew due to the heat, and desert due to the cold... I think I might just be forced to cover you in cold cuts and mustard. Sounds like a date...

Anyway. I think we all did well for recording hits, kills, wins. Everyone was honest enough to record their crappy rounds, mediocre rounds and good ones too. I think its a good indicator if we keep it up.
  • 0
2007 Great American GoreFest Champion (Aug. 4, Apoc)

#45 Crankymonky

Crankymonky

    It's The Dean!

  • Members
  • 687 posts
  • Location:DC

Posted 19 June 2007 - 03:43 PM

USNL (United States Nerf League)

Quoth Evil: ".... and I'm NOT proposing that Nerf become more organized like a league or emphasize more of a competitive nature......


And I'm not trying to make anyone feel worse about their playing but I think this stuff is kinda interesting.
I think the best way how players contribute to their team's result might be comparing the average KHD of wins vs. the average KHD of losses. It should obviously be expected that a person's KHD in a loss would be worse then in a win but I think the difference between the two could be signifcant. (to really make a point we'd need a bigger amount of rounds to draw from...)

To use DCNO as an example:
Evil and Groove performed very similarly statistically and have similar differentials. (Evil: 1.73333..., Groove: 1.7).
NerfMonkey and CrankyMonkey also put up similar numbers but had very different win totals. (NerfMonkey: 5-4, CrankyMonkey 3-6). Nerf Monkey's differential is .57, meaning his performance in wins was only slightly better then in losses. He was more consistant. CrankyMonkey's differential is 2.16, meaning that his record in wins was vastly better then in losses.* While CrankyMonkey was less consistant, his success (or failure) appears to have had a huge effect on his team.



* To really make this statistic work you need a bigger pool of scores. Notice CrankyMonkey was exceptional in two wins, but scored 0-3 in his last win. So clearly the conclusions aren't perfect...


Well, I´ve always known about my inconsistency, but for everyone that didn´t, these are a good way to find out!

Just a few questions, where did you come up with your numbers? What you are calling the differential doesn´t appear to be either Kills/Hits taken or Kills/Round. Think you could elaborate with a few more numbers and where you got them from?
  • 0
Tyranny Response Team

#46 The Infinite Shindig

The Infinite Shindig

    Arma-what-now?

  • Contributors
  • 1,383 posts

Posted 19 June 2007 - 07:51 PM

First off, I think it is true that most nerfers evaluate their performance in one way or another. For example, I've usually judged a decent/good round as one where my shots made were greater than or equal to shots taken. I think this is perfectly normal for a nerfer to do.

Secondly, after reading this thread, I am waiting for a pocket calculator integration that way you can keep track of your stats on the fly. "Oh no, I better make a shot because my kill ratio is going down!" That's pretty stupid if you ask me. If you nerf, you are a nerd. I know this from experience and how little change I need to make to the word nerf into the word nerd. This statistical means takes our nerdiness to a whole new level.

This is stupid. It will kill the fun in nerf. And I think most of the LCM would agree that if this shit gets pulled at Apoc, you won't be allowed to attend next year. I may start a coalition of war hosts to keep people out who flaunt these stats. It's one thing to measure your own worth on the battlefield and it's another thing entirely to make it a dick measuring contest.

Like I said before, it's one thing to measure your performance on your own. I actually spoke of doing a shots made to shots taken ratio article in order to show a means of self evaluation. It was pointed out to me, and I agreed, that it would turn into a giant dick waving contest. This takes that to a whole new level. I can't wait for some 16 year old to pull some god-like stats out of his ass and piss on your parade.

By the way, Leroy Jenkins video, I don't need to say more.
  • 0
Shindig of the Lawn Chair Mafia

<a href="http://www.albinobla.../flash/posting" target="_blank">Posting and You</a>

#47 Evil

Evil

    Fucking Copout

  • Members
  • 1,156 posts

Posted 19 June 2007 - 09:49 PM

This is stupid. It will kill the fun in nerf. And I think most of the LCM would agree that if this shit gets pulled at Apoc, you won't be allowed to attend next year. I may start a coalition of war hosts to keep people out who flaunt these stats. It's one thing to measure your own worth on the battlefield and it's another thing entirely to make it a dick measuring contest.


I don't think it will ever be an issue if people are discreet about it. We didn't run around waving our dicks the first time we tried it, no need to in the future. This isn't something that hinders the game as it happens, its something we talk about or look at later. It doesn't affect the field or the game, its an after-the-fact bunch of numbers we look at and discuss. We had 5 people do this out of the 20 who played at DCNO and at no time did it create any tension among those who were recording and those who weren't, we were all geared towards having fun and some of us chose to see how well we had done.

Another argument I have with your post is that if under the worst possible circumstances a player is looking to make his stat-line better, wouldn't that help the team they are on regardless? This is a secondary argument and unnecessary. But I don't see anyone playing for the sake of keeping stats, and I think thats the judgment call some of you have made here. Anyone taking any record of how they do are doing it for reasons other than to flaunt them.

The reason I got this idea was to see how consistent I was. Stats like these offer a chance to analyze that.

Anyway, I can see why their is some aversion to this idea but if we're mature enough about it I don't see any harm it could do. Consider also that any 16 year old flaunting god like stats is only going to get chastised on these boards for being a tool.

I see Shindig didn't read my first post when I stated "Don't bother posting "This would ruin Nerf". Thats not the point of this discussion"! :D

Edited by Evil, 19 June 2007 - 10:09 PM.

  • 0
2007 Great American GoreFest Champion (Aug. 4, Apoc)

#48 The Infinite Shindig

The Infinite Shindig

    Arma-what-now?

  • Contributors
  • 1,383 posts

Posted 20 June 2007 - 07:08 AM

I see Shindig didn't read my first post when I stated "Don't bother posting "This would ruin Nerf". Thats not the point of this discussion"! :P


I read it, and still think I have a valid point. That was just you trying to dissuade naysayers.

As for the rest of your post, I'll assume you'll be at Deal with a nice little calculator integration then. Great.
  • 0
Shindig of the Lawn Chair Mafia

<a href="http://www.albinobla.../flash/posting" target="_blank">Posting and You</a>

#49 Mantis

Mantis

    Member

  • Members
  • 553 posts

Posted 20 June 2007 - 07:10 AM

And I think most of the LCM would agree that if this shit gets pulled at Apoc, you won't be allowed to attend next year.

By the way, Leroy Jenkins video, I don't need to say more.



Jeez, I wouldn't want this to stop Evil from coming to our own war in the future.

And this would certainly get in the middle of the game and gay it up. Kids would need to tally their kills and deaths up at the end of EVERY round, or else how could you keep track? We already have enough distractions between rounds, what with Roy Rogers and all. Then, when the inevitable arguments break out, things would just get worse.

This would ruin nerf.

Edit: I see Paul beat me to it in the race of people at work trying to post.

Edited by Mantis, 20 June 2007 - 07:13 AM.

  • 0
Personal LCM Summer Tune-Up Stats:
K:H=1.00
Shots Fired: 2.1 x 10^4
Fun had: 97%

#50 Kuhlschrank

Kuhlschrank

    Member

  • Members
  • 452 posts

Posted 20 June 2007 - 09:04 AM

My issue with this would be the kid who is having a good round and has only been hit once. He could then rationalize not taking any chances because it would cut his kill ratio by half.

Regardless of when you record the stats and no matter how much you say it won't affect your play, you will still be thinking about them in the middle of the round, and you will make decisions based at least in part, off of those stats.

Instead, you should just be focusing on how to help the team reach the greater goal. This game has never been about personal ability and there is no reason we should start now.

Edited by Kuhlschrank, 20 June 2007 - 09:05 AM.

  • 0
+Kuhlschrank+ of the ~Lawnchair Mafia~


0 user(s) are reading this topic

0 members, 0 guests, 0 anonymous users