54 replies to this topic

[Captain]

I've been thinking about Nerf's history. I had a thought. Ten years from now, what guns that we can find in stores now could be highly sought after, rare guns, like crossbows? I considered the fact that Nerf sales are way up lately, so not a lot of guns out now are going to really be "rare" because there are so many of them, but I looked at their popularity. I know people love titans because of their power, and longshots are cool. But I can't really imagine any of the guns in stores now being treasured in the future. So, NerfHaven, what are your thoughts on this?

-Captain!

[Ambience 327]

I figure that at some point, we'll get a great mod for the Disk Shot Disk Launcher and that will become the most powerful weapon of all - and will be highly sought after because they don't sell as well as the LS's et all.




Just kidding!!!


I could see the LS & Recon being fairly popular long after their production ceases- simply because the clip system is so useful and they guns are very nice looking and comfortable.

If the Maverick was a better gun, it might fit the bill.

But I think the king of all will be the Nightfinder - simply because they are so popular now, and it is due to the ease & effectiveness of modding them. So people will still want them in the years to come, because they are great.

[mystefansdontflystraight]

I agree. NFs are amazing. I think that the AT line will be in great demand. Since 2ks are already hard to find, they will be wanted in the future for their integratibility. I also think the RF20 will be popular later on. But yes, the NF could be the next generation of nerfer's LnL.

[baghead]

I've been thinking about Nerf's history. I had a thought. Ten years from now, what guns that we can find in stores now could be highly sought after, rare guns, like crossbows? I considered the fact that Nerf sales are way up lately, so not a lot of guns out now are going to really be "rare" because there are so many of them, but I looked at their popularity. I know people love titans because of their power, and longshots are cool. But I can't really imagine any of the guns in stores now being treasured in the future. So, NerfHaven, what are your thoughts on this?

-Captain!

I don't know if LNL's have lost their luster, but they used to be right up there with Xbows...albeit, the market price on them has come down a lot recently...

2ks are already falling into the pseudo-must-have category, right up there with splitfires. The next one I expect to fall into the "legendary must have" in terms of integrations will be Spider Man guns, they're like a mini-splitifre.

In terms of the next x-bow.

there is no other gun like the x-bow. (+bows don't count in these kind of terms)

Longshots have too many moving parts and potential to have one thing go wrong over time, Pump-Shot guns and Max Shots aren't as durable, to put it simply: early-mid 90s nerf blasters are still some of the most reliable blasters out there. you can't replace them, and unless hasbro drastically changes their current theme on blaster design, there won't be something from this era that's as heavily sought after.

-Bags

[Cheese-Boy]

well, the nf is a great pistol, and i can see it already becoming the crossbow of pistols. but personally, i think SMTDG's have an interesting advantage over other guns and i can forsee them getting a forum section to their own, like the Crossbow, for mods, simply because of the fact that they can not only be modded on their own for separate use, but also as add ons for anything else. It's a great gun that can fit on ANY other gun. add a whole bunch together, or strap it to your favorite "whatever".

Edited by Cheese-Boy, 25 March 2008 - 01:31 PM.

[CAPS]

I say Longshots and Recons are out of the question. They suck! integrating their clip system onto another gun is very complecated. The Longshot though may have a shot at it, but to get the best out of it is also difficult to do. I'm sure Hasbro will make one or two more guns with the clip system.

I just pray Nitefinder would exist in production till Nerf does.

[Philote]

I agree that the Recon may gain popularity as people figure out more ways to make them "pwntastic" ( slap me if I ever use that word again), on the topic of future crossbows, I wonder if Hasbro has any plans for a new crossbow, that would make my day,or hell, my life.

[Captain]

When I said "Crossbow of the future" I really meant a gun with a similar reputation/demand, not a gun with a physical similarity.

[Philote]

When I said "Crossbow of the future" I really meant a gun with a similar reputation/demand, not a gun with a physical similarity.

I was aware of this, I was just throwing that out there.

[Blasphemy]

Pump-Shot guns and Max Shots aren't as durable, to put it simply: early-mid 90s nerf blasters are still some of the most reliable blasters out there.
-Bags

You know I really don't understand what the deal is here. I have not ever heard or seen any stories of Maxshots breaking. Unless you continually misuse the Maxshot or take apart its catch mechanism and put it back together wrong you shouldn't have an issue with the Maxshot breaking. I have seen plenty of threads about the Crossbow's plunger head snapping off of its plunger rod. I fail to see why everyone calls the Maxshot unreliable or not as durable though, it's is one of the most well built blasters I have seen. Most of its vital parts are made of silicone-impregnated plastic, all of its parts are pretty beefy, the plunger head and rear of the plunger rod are secured with steel pins, the screws holding it together are fairly large, and it has many more support walls inside it than most blasters of its size. I'm not trying to single you or anybody else out, bags, but could someone please tell me what the major durability issue is with the Maxshot?

EDIT: Even if there were another blaster that reached the level of fame that the Crossbow has achieved, nobody would call it the next Crossbow. Why? Well, because a blaster like that would mean so much to the NIC that nobody would bother calling it the next Crossbow, it would have to special a place in Nerf that it would be, well, whatever it is. Let's hope that Nerf dares to make a blaster that isn't the next Crossbow, but better than the Crossbow.

Edited by Blasphemy, 19 March 2008 - 03:22 PM.

[CaptainSlug]

Hasbro is moving away from simplicity and more towards thematic and gimmicky products. I don't expect they will be offering any new simplistic and effective spring powered blasters any time soon. And that's why I made the +Bow.
The only thing remotely similar that's available now is the Big Bad Bow. As for the offerings from other brands, those tend to be on the flimsy and unreliable side. And that inhibits their ability to become "Legendary". The only current blaster I see as having potential long-lasting appeal is the Big Blast.

The Crossbow was released almost 14 years ago.

Edited by CaptainSlug, 19 March 2008 - 05:28 PM.

[Captain]

A lot of you have made good points. The thing that almost worries me is the fact that a lot of these new guns are fairly complex, and will have trouble standing the test of time. Because of this, they might not last long enough to earn a reputation. I know nitefinders are very popular, but something tells me that they'll stay on the market for a long time. I guess they just don't make them the way they used to...

[NerfMonkey]

Pump-Shot guns and Max Shots aren't as durable, to put it simply: early-mid 90s nerf blasters are still some of the most reliable blasters out there.
-Bags

You know I really don't understand what the deal is here. I have not ever heard or seen any stories of Maxshots breaking. Unless you continually misuse the Maxshot or take apart its catch mechanism and put it back together wrong you shouldn't have an issue with the Maxshot breaking. I have seen plenty of threads about the Crossbow's plunger head snapping off of its plunger rod. I fail to see why everyone calls the Maxshot unreliable or not as durable though, it's is one of the most well built blasters I have seen. Most of its vital parts are made of silicone-impregnated plastic, all of its parts are pretty beefy, the plunger head and rear of the plunger rod are secured with steel pins, the screws holding it together are fairly large, and it has many more support walls inside it than most blasters of its size. I'm not trying to single you or anybody else out, bags, but could someone please tell me what the major durability issue is with the Maxshot?

They have a nasty tendency to blow apart. I have heard of this happening to about four people, though it never happened to me because I reinforced mine. Search around a bit, they do have their problems. The springs also weaken considerably over time, making the ranges shittier and shittier. I've seen an old Maxshot compared side by side to a new one and you can really see (and hear) a difference. It's also hard to band a Maxshot because of its complicated cocking mech, whereas with a simple gun like a Crossbow that just has a cocking handle on the back you can just loop some bungees around it and be done with it; so when the Maxshot's spring gets really weak you're pretty much screwed unless you want to buy a replacement spring.

Another reason people think they are unreliable: too many moving parts. The cocking lever alone has way too many pieces. The gun's just too complicated to be as reliable as other guns such as the Crossbow. As for the plunger head snapping off, big deal. You put a bigger screw through the plunger head and epoxy it in place and it's fixed, and the gun should be reinforced before any mods are done anyway. Everyone knows Crossbow plungers are prone to problems, but who gives a shit when all you have to do is slap some metal and glue on it and it's done? If a Maxshot were to develop a serious problem or something were to break it would be much harder to fix because of all the parts that all have to work together. Screw one up and you'll have a major job fixing it.

And this really doesn't have anything to do with the durability issue, but Maxshot handles are made for small children and to make the gun even decently comfortable or natural feeling you have to do a whole lot of work.

And they're ugly too.
--

As for future "legendary" guns, almost none. The Crossbow has been a legend for almost as long as I have. That should be a hint that those old guns aren't going anywhere and if anyone's able to shell out the cash for them they still will five years down the road. 2ks are among my favorite guns because they're accurate, long ranged, fast and reliable. Ever since the first people with decent modding materials got their hands on them and shared their results with the community everyone knew they were going to be amazing, and they still are 5+ years later.

The Big Blast is another example of a nice, simple, reliable (if you don't plug the pump the trigger will never snap) gun. That's really the only one that's come out since I started Nerfing that I think might someday be as sought after as Crossbows, 2ks, 1500s, etc.

I apologize for the long post.

[Cheese-Boy]

Hasbro is moving away from simplicity and more towards thematic and gimmicky products. I don't expect they will be offering any new simplistic and effective spring powered blasters any time soon.

yea. i think hasbro is catching on to the idea of people modding them (, yea right, as if this is new to them and they didn't know already *slaps myself for being silly*), but i think they are making it more complicated for that reason. so that people AREN'T messing with them. think of the LS. it forces people to use NERF darts only.

[CaptainSlug]

WE have nothing to do with Hasbro's current product line. The ever-growing N-Strike line is mostly built upon the rampant popularity of the Maverick and Longshot. The Nerf brand has increased in sales an insane amount as a result of those two products, so it's no surprise that they will keep expanding on what made those two a success.

And that would be because of their quasi-realism, which appeals to a much wider demographic than their previous lines.
Their current direction is actually bad for us (in the short term at least) because none of the new offerings are really war-capable. They do however bring in more people, so it's not all bad.

[Anothernoob]

We are in an era of multi-shot springers are we not?

First came the mavericks and Dart Tag Guns, then followed the Longshot and Recon, and the next thing coming is the Vulcan. And then... who knows?

I feel like that is the trend with most nerf guns nowadays and I suspect that if these types of blasters are doing well, Hasbro will continue this trend.

It's fun to imagine what Nerf will be like in the future. I still dream of a type of old-school revival where Nerf will re-release old guns in new and stylish forms, but it's not going to happen

[doubleshot]

We are in an era of multi-shot springers are we not?

First came the mavericks and Dart Tag Guns, then followed the Longshot and Recon, and the next thing coming is the Vulcan. And then... who knows?

I feel like that is the trend with most nerf guns nowadays and I suspect that if these types of blasters are doing well, Hasbro will continue this trend.

It's fun to imagine what Nerf will be like in the future. I still dream of a type of old-school revival where Nerf will re-release old guns in new and stylish forms, but it's not going to happen

The Firefly also is a springer multi-shot. Back on topic though, I think that LS's will be sought after once they are out of production, due to their clip capabilities and that they do get decent range.

[keef]

No. There will be NO blaster that noobs jump up the price double to 140+ bucks.

[TAiLsChaser]

I'd like to ask this question first: How many modifications have there been for the LS? A lot to say the least. That coupled with the fact that any good modder will tell you that modding a LS well is a bastard and a half, will definitely bear a factor on how the LS goes into the future. Let's say they are discontinued. Stock LS's, of course, will be hard to come by and the risk of botching a rare gun (by that time) will be very high. So... I wouldn't say LS's would be as highly sought after as a well-modded one would be.

The future is all about putting a lot of crap into a small package (just look at an iPhone). There will be new guns and even though I don't really care for the xboxs, that was old school nerf and that will live on.

What WE do now will determine to US what is legendary in the future of OUR nerf. You must remember that we are only a small portion of nerfers out there and hardly dent their sales. Hasbro could careless if we all stop buying as long as everyone else still buys.

Also, to go with the Longshot idea, the legendary LS will be the correct medley of mods. Since there are so many mods, it will be hard to determine what is the best mixture. Sure we have an idea but there's still more ideas to come.

[Thom]

I wouldn't comment on the "legendary" factor, but I predict that SMDTGs will become quite sought-after in the future. Almost the perfect integration, but relatively uncommon. Actually, I'm surprised that they haven't lowered the demand for AT2Ks like NFs did for the LNL.

I'm sure than most nerfers will be sad to see the NF go, but I have a feeling that Hasbro will fill the gap with something similar.

[rockfordnerfer]

WE have nothing to do with Hasbro's current product line. The ever-growing N-Strike line is mostly built upon the rampant popularity of the Maverick and Longshot. The Nerf brand has increased in sales an insane amount as a result of those two products, so it's no surprise that they will keep expanding on what made those two a success.

And that would be because of their quasi-realism, which appeals to a much wider demographic than their previous lines.
Their current direction is actually bad for us (in the short term at least) because none of the new offerings are really war-capable. They do however bring in more people, so it's not all bad.

But do WE not contribute to that popularity? How many people from our community have multiples of these guns? I bought 3 mavericks and two longshots. I have 5 nitefinders. If you look at the lists of the guns people own and how many, I feel it's safe to say that our community warps the market appearances. Most normal kids get MAYBE one of each gun, but the people in our community buy multiples of the guns we feel are good, wether it be to have spare parts, or to try multiple mods, or to stock up on extras for wars. The guns our community buys and focuses on have a profound impact on what hasbro will make. If we hadn't all been drooling nutcases over the Recon, and if we hadn't all rushed out to get one, it's very possible we wouldn't see the Vulcan. If we as a community choose to reject the weapons we think are poor in quality or are inneffective in a war, then the reduced sales of those weapons will make hasbro think twice about what they choose to make.

I personally think it's all good. Hasbro's trends will bring more people to nerfing than ever before, and the more people that join our hobby, the more guns we will get to see, and the more manufacturers joining the market. That gives us innovation like the longshot, and some cool ideas like what buzzbee has been doing. Maybe they don't perform as well as guns that get use in wars, but they're trying new things and that should be recognized and applauded.

I agree with you that none of the new offerings are war capable out of the box, but many guns currently available can be easily modified to perform very well in a war. The BBB has the simplest mod with the best result (cut off air restrictor, heat up the orange air funnel in boiling water and shove in a foot or so of cpvc). And the NF becomes a beast with a crayola marker and a new spring. None of these can really compete with the crossbow in the long run due to durability issues, but they can still be effective. Also remember that a crossbow needs to be modified to be effective in a war.

There are many guns that could become as well regarded and as rare as the crossbow. 10-15 years is a long time and only that time will tell the true durability and ultimate effectiveness and long term popularity of a blaster.

[Quilan Fett]

In that case, why are recons going on clearance? I keep seeing them at Target for $15.

[Crankymonky]

But do WE not contribute to that popularity? How many people from our community have multiples of these guns? I bought 3 mavericks and two longshots. I have 5 nitefinders. If you look at the lists of the guns people own and how many, I feel it's safe to say that our community warps the market appearances. Most normal kids get MAYBE one of each gun, but the people in our community buy multiples of the guns we feel are good, wether it be to have spare parts, or to try multiple mods, or to stock up on extras for wars. The guns our community buys and focuses on have a profound impact on what hasbro will make. If we hadn't all been drooling nutcases over the Recon, and if we hadn't all rushed out to get one, it's very possible we wouldn't see the Vulcan. If we as a community choose to reject the weapons we think are poor in quality or are inneffective in a war, then the reduced sales of those weapons will make hasbro think twice about what they choose to make.

You seem to be getting it. We do not contribute to any individual guns' popularity to any degree worth mentioning from a business perspective. Even with some members of the community owning over 100 blasters, the percent of the market we encompass is essentially null.

Look how many active members there are at any time in the community. Never more than 300 who post on a regular basis. Let's vastly exaggerate and say maybe a few thousand occasionally visit the sites and maybe have debated modding a gun. Many of them don't have intentions of buying guns at the moment, but they have in the past. For Hasbro 2007 Q4 revenue was $1.3 billion. Of that, Nerf, Transformers, and Furreal Friends were the strongest sellers. Now, if Nerf was one of the top sellers of a total $1.3 billion, do you really think the few thousand dollars this community brought in affected their entire business model to the degree of designing guns to meet our desires? I'm going to say no.

[CyberPunkGunner]

do you really think the few thousand dollars this community brought in affected their entire business model to the degree of designing guns to meet our desires? I'm going to say no.

Have to agree on his perspective. Though the Nerfing community does purchase guns, the amount is not significant to the Hasbro industry. Take into account we are bargain hunters, how many of you will go onto eBay and place your max bid at {Price in Stores} - {Shipping}? We get second hand guns (Trading and eBay) and we usually pick one we like, stick with it and just have our primary modded version. With only 14000ish members we amount to nothing. The real sales are in gimmicks and flavor-of-the-week consumer guns. Hasbro is going for more realistic and therefore complicated guns. The Maverick (Single action 6 shooter), Recon (imitating a semi auto pistol), Long Shot (Bolt action loser rifle), Magstrike (Small assault rifle; Uzi or MP5k), Vulcan (M249, S.A.W.)

Not that I own one, but from what I have seen, the beauty of the Crossbow is that it is simple and therefore durable and easy to modify. Other than the Nite Finder or old Tech Target, nothing else uses the plunger system which has been shown to be the best for modding.

Sadly, seems the best thing to do these days is to figure a way to modify rocket launchers (Titan) with a high pressure air supply for quicker reload.

[rockfordnerfer]

You seem to be getting it. We do not contribute to any individual guns' popularity to any degree worth mentioning from a business perspective. Even with some members of the community owning over 100 blasters, the percent of the market we encompass is essentially null.

Look how many active members there are at any time in the community. Never more than 300 who post on a regular basis. Let's vastly exaggerate and say maybe a few thousand occasionally visit the sites and maybe have debated modding a gun. Many of them don't have intentions of buying guns at the moment, but they have in the past. For Hasbro 2007 Q4 revenue was $1.3 billion. Of that, Nerf, Transformers, and Furreal Friends were the strongest sellers. Now, if Nerf was one of the top sellers of a total $1.3 billion, do you really think the few thousand dollars this community brought in affected their entire business model to the degree of designing guns to meet our desires? I'm going to say no.

I think you underestimate the impact of what we do here, or at the least what we could do. regardless of how many active posters we have here, there are many who aren't registered, or who use other sites. This community has the ability to affect other aspect of the foam blaster market. How many times have you ordered a gun online, or looked at product specs on toysrus.com? What if you took a couple extra minutes to fill out a product review on that website? Then "Mom" (who by TRU's own internal statements totals over 70% of their customers) when she is trying to figure out what to get her kid, sees that more people like a gun that we feel is effective than say, the maverick or the recon. Market research indicates that more parents are reading product reviews online for their children before they go into the store than ever before. If every active member took the time to write a quick review for even 3 blasters on popular business sites like toysrus.com or wal-mart.com, we could have a greater influence than what we currently do.

I was mostly talking about the fact that the average member of our community equals probably 15 regular consumers in terms of sales, and that does have an impact. The most important impact we have is that when new guns come out, our members are usually buying them up once they hit shelves, which results in the stores ordering more of them which means that the guns we purchase in higher amounts are more likely to be on the shelf when parents come to buy their kids a new blaster.